Many people await the US Presidential Elections 2024 in awe. One of the seismic contention is what’s going to happen to the US-China relations. From “America First” to China’s bashing in Washington, everyone’s future will be affected just as tech and AI revolution are doing the same.

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How can we make sense of this changing world: History, of course! 

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The Greek historian Thucydides, writing around 2,500 years ago, made an observation that still have relevance for contemporary United States. It is known as the Thucydides Trap as a rising power threatens an existing power.

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Trap I: if the existing power does nothing, it risks the competitor becoming stronger. 

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Trap II: if the existing power confronts, the condition for war is created.

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Some notable examples throughout history include

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• Athens vs Sparta (401-404 BC): The rise of Athens led to the Peloponnesian War.

• United Kingdom vs Germany (early 20th century): The decline of British power and rise of German power contributed to conditions that set for World War I.

• United States vs Soviet Union (late 20th century): The Cold War marked a struggle between the two nations for global influence. Both nonetheless managed to avoid direct military confrontation.

• France vs Britain (middle 19th century): French revolutionaries threatened British dominance, leading to Napoleonic Wars. 

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While war is not inevitable, historical patterns suggest that it is more likely than not when such power transitions occur. But still, the conflict can be avoided through significant efforts and adjustments by both parties. The Thucydides Trap serves as cautionary tale for world leaders to navigate power shifts carefully and prevent catastrophic outcome.